Polar Degradation Scenarios — Lupo Di Mare (Italia 12.98 Fuoriserie)
Rev: v2.1 · Updated: 2026-06-05
Tactic codes: H- hypothesis prefixes (H-RH/PF/CF/CL/HR) are defined in Routing Hypothesis Labels. Fine-grained T- tactics live in
06_past_winner_routes/routing_tactic_catalog.md.
⚠️ BASE POLAR NOTE — ORR cert VPP is the base
The base polar is now the 2026 ORR Offshore Racing Rule Certificate (Full Measured — USA 12985, Cert #US43225, measured 21-Apr-2026), built into lupo_polar_raw.pol. It is the flat-water, full-crew certificate polar and is HIGH confidence across all angles (certificate VPP, not chart-estimated). S3 (10%) is applied off the ORR base to produce offshore planning speeds. The S3 degradation recommendation stands regardless of polar source. (The cert is final/submitted; the rating is not used here — this is boat-speed only.)
Situation Assessment
The single biggest performance unknown is crew/boat familiarity. The delivery was predominantly motoring or motor-sailing. Race week will be the first real sailing on this boat for this crew.
Default planning scenario elevated from S2 (8%) to S3 (10%) minimum until race week data shows otherwise.
Unknown going in: - Actual boat speeds at any angle in any breeze - Rig tune (mast rake, shroud tensions, forestay sag) - Sail trim reference points for each sail on this boat - Maneuver times on this boat - Instrument calibration (wind angle, boat speed) - Boat motion characteristics in a seaway - Any equipment issues not apparent in delivery
Routing implications: - All hypotheses must hold at S3 - Conservative low-maneuver strategy (H-CL) strongly preferred - H-HR (high-risk/high-reward) is not appropriate for this crew/boat situation - Minimum sail change count is a genuine performance goal
Why Polars Degrade in Offshore Racing
| Factor | Typical | This Race — Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Antifouling condition | −2 to −5% | UNKNOWN — confirm haul-out date |
| Sail age / stretch | −1 to −3% | UNKNOWN — ORR cert measured 21-Apr-2026 (current) |
| Crew familiarity with boat | −0 to −3% (experienced) | −5 to −8% (unfamiliar boat) |
| Crew teamwork (first race together on this boat) | −0 to −2% | −3 to −5% |
| Night sailing on unfamiliar boat | −1 to −3% | −4 to −6% |
| Rig tune unknown | −0 to −2% | −3 to −5% until verified |
| Instrument calibration unknown | −0 to −2% | Flag — verify during race week |
| Sail changes delayed | −1 to −5% | Higher — crew learning the boat's systems |
| Wave state (Stream chop) | −3 to −10% | Same as standard |
Standard Degradation Scenarios
S0 — Polar baseline (ORR cert VPP, no degradation)
Do not use for this race. This is the flat-water, full-crew certificate polar — no degradation applied. No measured on-the-water data yet to support sailing the boat to the cert. (ORC VPP is a documented cross-check only — see lupo_polar_analysis.md; not the base, not averaged.)
S1 — 5% degradation
Applies when crew knows the boat well, fresh bottom, recent racing. Not applicable for this race.
S2 — 8% degradation
Previous default — elevated for this race. Use after race week once crew has boat-time and confidence is building.
S3 — 10% degradation ← CURRENT PLANNING DEFAULT
Use S3 as the primary planning scenario for all routing runs until race week data shows otherwise. Applies when: new boat to crew, no measured baseline, normal preparation. Use for: primary route evaluation, elapsed time estimates, crew provisioning.
S4 — 15% degradation
Applies when: unfamiliarity + heavy air + tired crew. Specifically relevant for first 24–36 h of the race and any Gulf Stream heavy-air scenario. Use for stress testing — if a strategy doesn't hold at S4, it is genuinely fragile for this crew.
Race Week Calibration Plan
Day 1 — Instrument verification
- [ ] Calibrate boat speed log (compare GPS SOG in zero current, steady wind)
- [ ] Calibrate wind instrument: check masthead fly and electronic sensor agree
- [ ] Record apparent wind angle at a known VMG condition and compare to polar
- [ ] Note: if instruments are significantly off, the crossover matrix is unreliable
Day 1–2 — Rig tune
- [ ] Set mast rake to sailmaker recommendation (obtain from North Sails / Austin Powers)
- [ ] Set shroud tensions to recommended values
- [ ] Check forestay sag under upwind load
- [ ] Note backstay tension required for each TWS band
Day 1–2 — Measure actual upwind VMG
- Sail at best upwind VMG in 12–16 TWS; record TWS, TWA, BSP, heel
- Compare to ORR cert: BSP 7.17 @39.6° (12 kt), 7.37 @38.0° (16 kt). If within 5% → S2 applies; 5–10% off → stay S3; >10% → rig tune or instrument issue
Day 2–3 — Measure reaching speeds
- Sail at TWA 90° and 110° in 12–16 TWS with A1 or A1.5-1
- Compare to ORR cert: 8.82 kts (90°/12 kts), 9.13 kts (110°/12 kts); at 16 kt: 9.20 (90°), 9.71 (110°)
- If >90% of polar: S2 reasonable; if <90%: stay S3
Day 3 — Maneuver timing
- Time: one tack, one gybe, one headsail change, one kite set, one kite douse
- Expected first-attempt times for unfamiliar crew: tack 3–4 min, gybe 4–6 min, kite set 8–12 min
- These numbers go directly into routing run maneuver cost fields
Pre-race calibration target: If crew consistently within 8% of polar → upgrade to S2 for final routing runs (T-24 brief). If 10–12% off → stay S3, focus on maneuver count reduction.
Routing Strategy Implications — Unfamiliar Boat
| Strategy | Standard preference | This race |
|---|---|---|
| H-RH (rhumb, low maneuvers) | Baseline comparison | ELEVATED — actively attractive |
| H-PF (pressure-first) | Medium | Medium — viable if clear |
| H-CF (current-first) | Medium | Lower — requires precise execution |
| H-CL (conservative low-maneuver) | For tired crew | ELEVATED — appropriate from the start |
| H-HR (high-risk/reward) | For experienced teams | DEPRIORITIZE — wrong race for this |
Best routing principle for this race: Choose the route that requires the fewest sail changes and gybes. A route at 95% VMG with 4 gybes beats one at 100% VMG with 12 sail changes in the Stream — for this crew, in this race.
Gulf Stream: Don't plan a crossing that banks on a headsail peel inside the current zone — set the correct sail before entering. If conditions change inside, a peel is a deliberate skipper-cleared call; the default is to bear off onto a manageable angle and hold the sail to the exit.
Sensitivity Output Template
For each routing run, record:
Routing Run ID: _______________
Model / GRIB cycle: _______________
Strategy: _______________
Polar degradation sensitivity:
S0 (0%): elapsed = ___h ___m REFERENCE ONLY
S1 (5%): elapsed = ___h ___m NOT APPLICABLE THIS RACE
S2 (8%): elapsed = ___h ___m Post-race-week if calibration validates
S3 (10%): elapsed = ___h ___m ← PRIMARY PLANNING NUMBER
S4 (15%): elapsed = ___h ___m Stress test — must still be viable
Key questions:
- At S4, is the strategy still better than rhumb? YES / NO
- How many sail changes does this strategy require?
- What is the most complex maneuver this strategy requires?
- Could a less experienced crew execute this in the dark?
ORR Base Speeds for S3 Reference
S3 effective = ORR cert BSP × 0.90. Quick reference (flat-water ORR base → S3 planning speed):
⚠️ The run rows below list VPP VMG-optimal angles (165–169°) for reference only — not steering targets. Lupo's asym is sailed at ~135–150° and gybed down; use those as the operational downwind angle. See note beneath the table.
| Point of sail | ORR base BSP | S3 (×0.90) |
|---|---|---|
| Upwind @12 kt (best-VMG angle 39.6°) | 7.17 | 6.45 |
| Upwind @16 kt (best-VMG angle 38.0°) | 7.37 | 6.63 |
| Reach 110° @14 kt | 9.44 | 8.50 |
| Reach 120° @16 kt | 9.90 | 8.91 |
| Run @16 kt (VPP VMG angle 165.7°) | 8.09 | 7.28 |
| Run @20 kt (VPP VMG angle 169.1°) | 8.87 | 7.98 |
The run rows are the cert's VMG-optimal (VPP) angles — Lupo's asym (tacked on centerline) is not sailed at 165–169°; the crew realises that VMG by gybing downwind on the hot angles (~135–150°), not by soaking square. See the downwind section of lupo_polar_analysis.md.
All base numbers from lupo_polar_raw.pol (ORR cert). Apply the deeper Stream-chop / heavy-air penalties (S4) on top of S3 where the route crosses the Gulf Stream upwind.
Sources
- Base polar (routing source-of-truth) — 2026 ORR Offshore Racing Rule Certificate (Full Measured), USA 12985, Cert #US43225, measured 21-Apr-2026.
- Polar file —
lupo_polar_raw.pol, built from the ORR cert. - ORC cross-check (not the base, not averaged) —
data/2026-05-24 Sail and Polar Info for Brandon/ORC/Italia 12.98 ORC Polars USA 12985.txt; reconciliation inlupo_polar_analysis.md.
Document version: 2.0 — rebased on ORR cert VPP; default elevated to S3 until race week calibration data available
PRE-RACE RESEARCH — not race-period routing advice. Updated 2026-05-29.