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Historical Fleet Track Maps

Rev: v2  ·  Updated: 2026-05-29

Comparable-boat track maps for every Newport Bermuda Race in our dataset, 2012–2024. Each year shows the boats in Lupo's size range with the corrected-time winner highlighted in gold — what boats like ours did, and what actually worked.

How to read: - Toggleable layers — strict cohort (40–45 ft LOA) and loose cohort (38–47 ft + similar handicap) - Gold line — corrected-time winner within strict cohort. Winner basis varies by year — each map's legend names the actual basis used - Dashed white line — rhumb line (Newport → St. David's Head); east/west deviation = Gulf Stream decision - Scroll to zoom, click the layer control to toggle cohorts

Lupo Di Mare analog note: No Italia 12.98 in any 2012–2024 fleet. Sister boat Italia 11.98 (39.3 ft) raced as CHRISTOPHER DRAGON in 2022 and 2024 — named when she appears as closest builder match. For other years the strict 40–45 ft cohort is the Lupo analog group.

How to read the magenta sister-Italia line (CHRISTOPHER DRAGON in 2022 and 2024)

The magenta line is a single boat, raced by a different crew, with different sails, and a different rating (Italia 11.98 → TCF1 0.7758 in 2024 vs Lupo's expected ~0.78). Treat as one data point, not a prediction.

Useful for: Confirming a similar Italia hull completed the route; identifying the corridor a comparable hull took; comparing against strict-cohort gold winner.

NOT useful for: Implying Lupo will route the same way (sample size = 1; rating delta matters); substituting for the strict-cohort distribution.

In years without sister-Italia data (2012, 2014, 2016, 2018): the strict 40–45 ft cohort is the best Lupo analog.

Cross-reference with Winner Route Summary.

2024 — Warm Core Eddy Year

Analog: W-BH · W-RC · WCE — see winner route 2024.

Pattern: S-SW building breeze; well-defined WCE sitting east of rhumb ~36–38°N; frontal passage mid-race shifted fleet to reaching mode.

What to look for: Fleet split early — east boats found favorable WCE current; rhumb boats paid in the Stream crossing zone. Pronounced eastward bulge at ~37°N = eddy fingerprint.

Relevance to 2026: If pre-race SSH anomaly shows WCE in same latitude band, 2024 routing playbook applies directly.

Lupo analog (2024): Sister boat — CHRISTOPHER DRAGON (Italia 11.98, 39.3 ft, ORR TCF1 0.7758). Strict-cohort winner: Rikki (R/P 42, TCF1 0.7965). Strict cohort: 64 boats. n=1 caveat applies.

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

2022 — Post-Frontal Squalls, Forming CCR

Analog: W-PF · W-SQ · CCR — see winner route 2022.

Pattern: Cold front crossed night one; post-frontal NW 18–24 kts; forming CCR near rhumb crossing — partially closed, 2–3 kts adverse in interior. The east corridor was the fastest in the set this year (median ~59.4 h vs ~75.1 h west — a ~15.7 h west penalty), but only the east cohort (n=29) is statistically meaningful.

What to look for: Fleet splits sharply at Gulf Stream. Boats east of CCR western limb show as thin but fast tail; bulk of fleet crowded rhumb and absorbed adverse current. Zig Zag (J/122) went east — 2nd overall SDL.

Relevance to 2026: In any post-frontal year with CCR near rhumb, this map shows where the trap was.

Lupo analog (2022): Sister boat — CHRISTOPHER DRAGON (Italia 11.98). Strict-cohort winner: Oakcliff Farr 40 Red. Strict cohort: 67 boats. n=1 caveat applies.

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

2018 — The Parking Lot

Analog: W-LA · W-PL · W-BH — see winner route 2018.

Pattern: High-pressure stall mid-race; near-zero wind at 30–33°N; corridor lottery — boats threading a narrow pressure seam got dramatically better elapsed times.

What to look for: Density cliff around 32–33°N (park zone). Boats that avoided it show as thinner but more southerly track. Fleet more spread than in wind years.

Relevance to 2026: If pre-race 500 mb shows high blocking near 30–35°N, this is the reference year. Light air favors heavier displacement on corrected time — prioritize pressure over current.

Lupo analog (2018): No Italia in fleet. Strict cohort (40–45 ft, 54 boats). Cohort winner: First Light (ORC corrected).

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

2016 — Cold-Core Ring Trap

Analog: W-PF · W-PL · W-CC — see winner route 2016.

Pattern: Moderate SW conditions with pronounced Gulf Stream crossing decision.

What to look for: Fleet routing relative to rhumb at Stream crossing (~35–37°N). East/west spread is the primary tactical decision point that appears in every year. The west cohort here ran ~5 h slower than rhumb (chasing an RTOFS-only signal); the strict cohort split roughly evenly east/west.

Note: 2016 race-start timestamp from binary has encoding anomaly; positions are valid.

Lupo analog (2016): No Italia in fleet. Strict cohort (40–45 ft, 67 boats). Cohort winner: Toothface 2 (TCF1 corrected).

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

2014 — Early YB Tracking Era (seed/held-out year)

Analog: W-LA · W-PF · W-RC — see winner route 2014.

Pattern: One of the first races with YB binary tracking. Fewer boats tracked; leaderboard metadata sparse; position corridor clear. Held out as the seed/check year in the analog pipeline.

What to look for: General fleet corridor — baseline for east-vs-west Gulf Stream tendency before tracking fleet grew.

Lupo analog (2014): No Italia in fleet. Strict cohort (40–45 ft, 70 boats). Cohort winner: JEFFREYMACFARLANECOM (IRC TCC). IRC scale differs from ORR — comparison qualitative, not numerical.

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

2012 — Baseline Corridor

Analog: W-PF · W-BH — see winner route 2012.

Pattern: Earliest year in dataset. Routing-corridor baseline — confirms standard Newport–Bermuda track envelope all other years deviate from.

What to look for: Core corridor when no strong weather features to chase. Any year where the cohort tracks look like 2012 = "no feature" year — pure boat-speed race.

Lupo analog (2012): No Italia in fleet. Strict cohort (40–45 ft, 71 boats). Gold line shows DRAGON as line-honours winner (corrected-time not captured). Read as "fastest 40–45 ft elapsed route", not "best corrected".

Comparable boats — strict (40–45 ft) + loose (38–47 ft) layers, winner in gold:

Sources

  • Track maps & cohorts — generated from YB tracker binaries 2012–2024 (maps/*_comparable_map.html); strict 40–45 ft LOA cohort, loose 38–47 ft + similar handicap.
  • Corridor medians & cohort sizes — scripts/analysis/stream_corridor_analysis.py → data/yb_cache/stream_corridor_stats.json.
  • Per-year analog tags (W-*) — weather_analog_framework.md.
  • Winner tactics per year — winner_route_summary.md.
  • Gulf Stream features (CCR / WCE) — gulf_stream_framework.md.

PRE-RACE RESEARCH — not race-period routing advice. Updated 2026-05-29.