Sail Crossover Notes - Lupo Di Mare (Italia 12.98 Fuoriserie)

⚠️ WIND RANGES ARE ESTIMATES - ORC polar not yet received

The crossover wind ranges in this file and in crossover_matrix.csv were estimated without a valid ORC VPP polar for the Italia 12.98 Fuoriserie. The sail codes and inventory match the actual boat. The TWS/TWA crossover thresholds should be treated as first-approximation planning values only - recalibrate against the cert polar when it arrives.

How to Use the Crossover Matrix

The CSV matrix (crossover_matrix.csv) gives the nominal sail selection by TWS and TWA. This file documents judgment calls, wave-state adjustments, Gulf Stream-specific notes, and conditions where the nominal crossover should be overridden.

Sail Codes - Lupo Di Mare Actual Inventory

Source: Owner inventory spreadsheet (2026-05-16) + North Sails chart (Austin Powers, 2025-04-30) Boat was previously named Querencia (ORC cert CC/216736).

Code	Sail Description	Status	Tack Point	Key Notes
J1	Full genoa - light to medium upwind	On boat ✅	Hydraulic w/white donut	Primary upwind in <16 kts
J2	Intermediate genoa	OFF BOAT ❌	-	Not available for 2026 race
J3	Heavy jib - medium-heavy upwind	On boat ✅	Hydraulic w/white donut	J1→J3 is a bigger step with no J2
J4	Heavy weather / storm jib (furling)	On boat, furled ✅	3-to-1 w/furler adapter	Confirm storm jib role for safety cert
Code 65	Code 65 - furling code zero / reacher	On boat, FURLING ✅	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska - furler adapter	Can deploy/furl without full peel
A1-1	Light asymmetric	On boat ✅	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska shackle	Same tack as all A-sails → peels clean
A1.5-1	Medium-light asymmetric	On boat ✅	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska shackle	Same tack as A1-1 → clean peel
A2-1	Medium asymmetric	On boat, still rolled ⚠️	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska shackle	Unpack and inspect immediately
A3	Heavy asymmetric	On boat ✅	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska shackle	Same tack as above
A4	Heavy running asymmetric - planing	On boat ✅	Sprit, 2-to-1 Tylaska shackle	Same tack as above
GS old	Gennaker (old)	On boat, location uncertain ⚠️	Mid deck padeye	Confirm location and condition
GS new	Gennaker (new)	OFF BOAT ❌	-	Not available for 2026 race
SS	Symmetric spinnaker	On boat, furled ✅	Mid deck padeye	Confirm pole/poleless setup
Reef1	First reef in main	-	-	Pre-rig before Gulf Stream entry
Reef2	Second reef in main	-	-	-
Trys	Storm Trysail	On boat, location uncertain ⚠️	main tack	Confirm location; brief crew on hoist

Wave State Adjustments

The crossover matrix assumes moderate sea state. Adjust as follows:

Upwind in short steep chop (Gulf Stream against wind)

Add 1 point of conservatism: if matrix says H1, consider H2 or H3
Specific condition: SW wind 18–22 kts against northerly Stream current in the Hatteras eddy region creates 2–4m steep seas
Polar degradation in this condition: add -5 to -8% on top of standard scenario

Running in building sea state

Heavy asym (A3) or symmetric becomes preferred over lighter A2-1 much sooner
A2-1 in 20+ kts and following seas: broach risk increases significantly
After sunset, drop down one sail conservatism tier unless crew is fresh and confident

Code 65 in open ocean swell

Confirmed FURLING (furler adapter on sprit - owner spreadsheet 2026-05-16). Can be deployed and recovered without a full foredeck peel.
Code 65 works well in moderate chop; in 2m+ confused seas at tight angles, the Code 65 can be difficult to manage and furl cleanly - watch for this post-Stream
If forecast shows disorganized wave pattern post-Stream, consider transitioning to J1 or J3 rather than Code 65
The "choose before Stream entry" protocol (card_03, card_04) still applies for squall preparedness; if a squall forces the Code 65 down inside the Stream, recovery is faster than previously assumed

Gulf Stream Specific Notes

The Gulf Stream presents three distinct sail environments:

Stream Entry (approaching north wall)

Wind often backs or freshens near SST gradient
Chop builds quickly in opposing current + wind
Priority: have headsail change ready before entering if wind is near a crossover point
Do not enter the Stream mid-peel

Inside the Stream

Surface current 2.5–4.5 kts (sometimes 5+ in a tight meander)
If wind is SSW–S and current is N, effective upwind angle may be unfavorable
If wind is WSW–NW and current is N, reaching through the Stream is fast and favorable
Squall risk: convection triggered by warm SST; can spike 25–40+ kts for 15–30 minutes
Squall preparedness: reef #1 in mast, crew ready, spinnaker doused before suspect radar return

Stream Exit (south wall)

Wind often lighter, may back to E or SE after Stream
SST drops; check for cold-core ring on south side
Typically transition from spinnaker reaching to light reaching or upwind fetch to Bermuda

Key Newport-Bermuda Crossover Notes for Lupo

Code 65 is a critical Newport-Bermuda sail - and it is FURLING. The Code 65 covers TWA 60–80° in 8–14 kts TWS - exactly the range a reaching race in moderate Bermuda High conditions produces. Critically, the Code 65 uses a furler adapter on the sprit: it can be rolled up and deployed quickly, unlike a hanked-on code zero that requires a full peel. This is a routing advantage - the "choose before Stream entry, hold through" rule from the onboard cards still applies for squall preparedness, but recovery from the Code 65 is faster than previously assumed if conditions change. Condition-check the furler mechanism before race week.

A1.5-1 covers the heart of the Newport-Bermuda corridor. TWA 80–140°, TWS 8–18 kts is the single most common sailing condition in a W-BH year. The A1.5-1 (medium-light) transitions the gap between A1-1 (too light above ~14 kts) and A2-1 (overkill in 12–16 kts). All three share the same sprit Tylaska tack point - peels between them are clean, no hardware change. If Lupo brings two asymmetrics, bring A1.5-1 + A2-1. If three, A1-1 + A1.5-1 + A2-1.

⚠️ A2-1 must be unpacked before race week. This is the primary working sail for 14–22 kts at 80–150° - the most common Newport-Bermuda condition. It is currently "rolled, still rolled." Flake, inspect for damage (seam separation, UV degradation, clew patches), and re-pack before departure.

No J2 - the J1→J3 step is large. In 16–22 kts upwind, the normal call would be J2. With J2 off the boat, the choice is J1 (potentially overpowered) or J3 (potentially underpowered below 20 kts). Brief the crew that the headsail decision in this range is conservative-by-default: go to J3 earlier than you would with a J2 available.

A4 planing potential is real but context-dependent. The polar shows 10.2 and 12.6 kts at 20 and 24 TWS downwind. This is achievable but requires: - Ocean swell supporting surfing (not Gulf Stream chop) - Crew proficient in A4 control at speed - TWA genuinely in the 140–155° range Apply 8.5 kts cap for Gulf Stream crossing calculations at any speed. Post-Stream swell conditions may unlock the A4 performance.

Newport-Bermuda Dominant Sail Scenario History

Analog Type	Start	Offshore	Stream entry	Post-Stream	Bermuda Approach
W-BH (reaching race)	J1 / Code 65	Code 65 / A1.5-1	A2-1 (pre-set before entry)	A1.5-1 / A2-1	J1 / Code 65
W-PF (frontal transition)	J3	J3 / A3	Beat: J3; reaching: A2-1	A2-1	Variable
W-LA (light air)	J1	Code 65 / A1-1	A1-1 / A1.5-1	A1.5-1	Code 65
W-CF (strong cold front)	J3	J3 / A3	J3 or A3	A2-1	Variable
W-BH + W-BS (Bermuda shutdown)	J1 / Code 65	A2-1	A2-1	A2-1	Light: J1 or Code 65

Crossover Decision Triggers - Onboard

When in doubt, apply these rules:

Darkness rule: If it is dark and you are unsure, take the safer option. The minutes lost on the conservative sail cost less than a blown spinnaker or a broach at 0300.
The 15-minute rule: If a sail change is predicted to be worth more than 0.15 kts average VMG for more than 15 minutes, it is worth making. Less than that, hold.
Gulf Stream squall rule: If radar shows any echo within 30 nm to the SW–NW in the Stream, get the kite down and reef ready. Every minute of hesitation costs you.
Fatigue rule: After 48 hours, add one conservatism tier to all sail selections. A tired crew executing a simpler sail plan beats a fast plan executed badly.
Watch handoff rule: Never leave a complex sail situation for an incoming watch without briefing it completely. If a peel is needed in the next 2 hours, do it on the current watch.

Crossover notes version: 1.1 - Updated 2026-05-16 from owner inventory spreadsheet Sail codes now match actual boat (Code 65, A1-1, A1.5-1, A2-1, J3, J4; J2 off boat) Code 65 confirmed FURLING - changes Stream crossing sail protocol Review with sailmaker before offshore