Polar Analysis — Lupo Di Mare (Italia 12.98 Fuoriserie)
Rev: v3.1 · Updated: 2026-06-05
Source: 2026 ORR Offshore Racing Rule Certificate (Full Measured) — USA 12985, Cert #US43225, measured 21-Apr-2026
Polar file: lupo_polar_raw.pol (boat-speed grid TWS 4–24 × TWA 52–180 + beat/run VMG table, built directly from the cert by scripts/build_polar_from_orr.py — no values hand-transcribed)
Data quality: HIGH across all angles — this is a certificate VPP, not a chart estimate. The old ±0.3 kt MEDIUM-confidence caveat on intermediate angles is retired.
Cert status: FINAL — submitted to the race office (valid for racing). Boat-speed polar is the routing source-of-truth; GPH 557.1 SpM is the cert rating. Corrected-time / class analysis still waits on the 2026 fleet rating list (competitor ratings not yet published) — a fleet-data gap, not a cert gap.
Boat character: SA/Displ 22–26, DLR 162, Axxon carbon rig, Fuoriserie racing keel (2.50 m). Fast upwind above 12 kts; excellent reaching machine; needs wind to move.
Section 1 — Upwind Analysis
Beat VMG by TWS (ORR cert VPP — optimal beat angles)
| TWS | Beat Angle | Up BSP | Beat VMG | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 46.9° | 3.79 | 2.59 | Marginal; any current impact is significant |
| 6 | 44.9° | 5.26 | 3.73 | Still slow; light-air holes hurt |
| 8 | 42.6° | 6.21 | 4.57 | Building; boat starts to come alive |
| 10 | 42.0° | 6.96 | 5.17 | Solid |
| 12 | 39.6° | 7.17 | 5.52 | Near-optimal — angle tightens hard here |
| 14 | 38.0° | 7.29 | 5.74 | Close to peak |
| 16 | 38.0° | 7.37 | 5.81 | Peak zone |
| 20 | 36.6° | 7.50 | 6.02 | Maximum VMG — angle tightens to ~36.6° |
| 24 | 36.7° | 7.59 | 6.09 | Top of the band; angle holds tight |
The ORR cert shows the boat pointing higher and faster than the old North Sails proxy suggested: beat angle tightens from 46.9° at 4 kts to ~36.6° at 20 kts (the proxy had this flat at ~39°), and peak beat VMG reaches 6.02 @20 / 6.09 @24 versus the proxy's ~5.67. Above 20 kts VMG has effectively peaked — reef to hold the tight angle rather than chasing more speed at a wider angle.
Newport-Bermuda upwind scenarios
Worst case — SW 16–20 kts, wind against current in the Stream: - Polar beat VMG (ORR): 5.81–6.02 kts. Wave-state penalty (Stream chop): additional −5 to −8% beyond S3. - Effective planning estimate: ~5.5–6.0 kts polar VMG before chop, dropping to ~4.9–5.2 kts effective. A 100 nm upwind Stream section takes ~19–20 hours. - Compare: a boat reaching a favorable current lane at ~9.0 kts covers 100 nm in ~11 hours.
The upwind-Stream scenario is the most expensive mistake in this race. Avoid it.
Section 2 — Reaching Analysis (The Money Angles)
Polar speed at key reaching angles (ORR cert VPP — HIGH confidence)
| TWS | 60° | 75° | 90° | 110° | 120° | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7.45 | 7.77 | 7.90 | 8.09 | 7.96 | Boat coming alive; 110° already fastest |
| 10 | 7.98 | 8.34 | 8.42 | 8.74 | 8.67 | Speed building; 110–120° lead |
| 12 | 8.22 | 8.58 | 8.82 | 9.13 | 9.22 | Excellent; Code 67 / A1.5 reaching territory |
| 14 | 8.37 | 8.75 | 9.04 | 9.44 | 9.59 | Strong; right sails matter here |
| 16 | 8.49 | 8.88 | 9.20 | 9.71 | 9.90 | A3 reaching zone |
| 20 | 8.66 | 9.09 | 9.47 | 10.12 | 10.41 | Planing onset at 110–120° |
| 24 | 8.76 | 9.23 | 9.67 | 10.39 | 10.74 | Planing; A3/A4 territory |
Speed is relatively flat across 60°–90° but accelerates 90°→120° in breeze. At 12 kts TWS the gap between 90° (8.82) and 120° (9.22) is 0.40 kts; by 16 kts the gap between 90° (9.20) and 120° (9.90) is 0.70 kts. The 110–120° TWA zone at 14–20 TWS is Lupo's fastest point of sail — and note 135° in heavy air keeps climbing (10.57 @20, 11.52 @24) as the boat starts surfing on the hotter angles.
Newport-Bermuda reaching scenarios
W-BH typical year (12–18 kts, TWA 90–120°): - Polar BSP (ORR) 9.0–9.9 kts at 110–120° in 14–16 kts. - Effective boat speed (S3, 10% degradation): ~8.1–8.9 kts - At ~8.5 kts average: 636 nm ÷ 8.5 = ~75h theoretical; realistic with light-air + Stream: 84–90h
Section 3 — Downwind Analysis
Run VMG by TWS (ORR cert VPP — optimal run angles)
These are VPP VMG-optimal angles, NOT steering targets
Lupo's asym (tacked on centerline) cannot soak the deep 165–169° angles below — it is sailed at the hot angles (~135–150°) and gybed down. Read the table for VMG to beat; see the note beneath it for how the boat actually sails it.
| TWS | Run TWA | Dn BSP | Run VMG | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 137.0° | 4.04 | 2.95 | Slow; patience required |
| 6 | 137.7° | 5.72 | 4.23 | Moderate |
| 8 | 138.2° | 7.08 | 5.28 | Getting usable |
| 10 | 144.7° | 7.36 | 6.01 | Good; A1 / A1.5 comfortable |
| 12 | 153.4° | 7.51 | 6.72 | Strong; A2-1 zone |
| 14 | 160.3° | 7.77 | 7.32 | Very good |
| 16 | 165.7° | 8.09 | 7.84 | VPP angle; realise by hot-angle + gybe (A3) |
| 20 | 169.1° | 8.87 | 8.71 | VPP VMG; asym can't soak this — gybe through |
| 24 | 168.1° | 9.71 | 9.50 | VPP VMG; surf hot angles, gybe down |
Read the run-angle column as VPP VMG-optimal angles, not steering targets. The cert run table is a velocity-prediction construct: it reports the theoretical best-VMG-made-good angle, which moves deep (≈137° light → 165–169° @16–24 kt) as the boat powers up. But Lupo flies an asymmetric tacked on centerline (per the cert — asym yes, symmetric no), and an asym cannot be carried at 165–169°: run that deep it collapses behind the main. So the cert's deep angle is the theoretical ceiling for a dead-square leg, not how this boat is steered downwind. The old North Sails proxy's shallower ~145–158° was actually closer to the operational asym angle — the two numbers describe different things, so this is not simply a case of "the cert is deeper, therefore the proxy was backwards."
Operationally, Lupo reaches and gybes downwind (carry apparent forward, give up a little VMG to keep the kite pressurised and the boat steerable): - 10–12 kts: A1.5 / A2 at ~135–150°; gybe down rather than soaking square. - 16 kts: hot-angle the A3 (~135–145°) — the VMG cost of sailing ~20–25° above the cert angle is small and the boat stays lit. - 20–24 kts: surf the hot angles — 135° = 10.57 @20 / 11.52 @24, 120° = 10.41 @20 / 10.74 @24 — and gybe through the deep, never soak to it.
The cert deep-angle Run VMG (7.84 @16 → 8.71 @20 → 9.50 @24) is the number to beat, but you realise it by gybing downwind on the hot angles, not by steering 168°. Route to the fewest gybes that keep the boat lit (see degradation scenarios).
Heavy-air caution for the Gulf Stream crossing: the 10.5–11.5 kt hot-angle speeds require genuine ocean swell (not Stream chop) + well-trimmed A3/A4 + active helm. Do not use 10+ kts in Gulf Stream crossing calculations — apply an ~8.5–9.0 kt cap through the Stream in heavy air. Post-Stream Sargasso swell: these speeds are achievable and should be modeled.
ORC Cross-Check
The boat also has an ORC VPP polar (data/2026-05-24 Sail and Polar Info for Brandon/ORC/Italia 12.98 ORC Polars USA 12985.txt). ORC is a different VPP model from ORR. It is documented here as a sanity cross-check — ORR is the routing source-of-truth (Newport Bermuda scores ORR) and the two are NOT averaged.
Where they agree and differ:
| Point | ORR cert | ORC VPP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upwind VMG @10 kt | 6.96 BSP @42.0° → VMG 5.17 | 6.77 BSP @39.9° → VMG 5.19 | VMG essentially identical; ORR sails a touch faster at a slightly wider angle |
| Reach 110° @16 | 9.71 | 9.50 | ORR slightly faster reaching |
| Reach 120° @16 | 9.90 | 9.62 | ORR slightly faster |
| Deep 135° @16 | 9.48 | 9.81 | ORC slightly faster deep in mid-band |
| Light air | full 4 kt column | no 4 kt column (starts at 6 kt) | use ORR for sub-6 kt routing |
Read: two independent VPPs land within a few hundredths of a knot on upwind VMG made good, which is reassuring. They split mainly on the speed/angle trade and on the deep-reach band. We route on ORR and keep ORC only as a confidence check.
Section 4 — Newport-Bermuda Elapsed Time Estimates
Planning baseline: S3 (10% degradation) — project standard for first-race crew on unfamiliar boat. See polar_degradation_scenarios.md for rationale. Base BSPs below are read from the ORR cert polar.
W-BH reaching race scenario
| Segment | Distance | Conditions | ORR BSP | S3 effective | Segment time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal (Newport to open water) | 50 nm | 10 kts, mixed | ~6.7 kts | 6.0 kts | 8.3h |
| Offshore to Stream | 250 nm | 14–16 kts, TWA 90–110° | ~9.0 kts | 8.1 kts | 30.9h |
| Gulf Stream crossing | 100 nm | 16 kts, mixed/upwind + chop | ~7.4 kts | 6.2 kts | 16.1h |
| Post-Stream to Bermuda | 235 nm | 14 kts, TWA 100–120° | ~9.5 kts | 8.5 kts | 27.6h |
| Total | 636 nm | ~83h (~3d 11h) |
S2 (8%): approximately 79h. Use S2 only after race week shows crew within 8% of polar.
Scenario range (S3 baseline)
| Analog | Conditions | Estimated elapsed |
|---|---|---|
| W-BH fast (14–20 kts, TWA 90–120°) | Best case | ~77–82h |
| W-BH typical (12–18 kts, TWA 80–110°) | Expected | ~83–90h |
| W-PF/W-LA mixed | Front + light air segments | ~93–104h |
| W-LA parking lot (2018 analog) | Extended light air | ~108–118h |
Section 5 — Rating Context
Newport-Bermuda 2026 uses ORR Performance Curve Scoring. The ORR certificate is submitted to the race office (Full Measured, FINAL — USA 12985, Cert #US43225) and is the routing source-of-truth for boat speed.
The cert is final, but competitor corrected-time math still waits on the fleet. GPH 557.1 SpM and the sec/mile allowances are the submitted-cert values. What's not yet buildable is corrected-time / class-standing against the fleet — the published 2026 entry sheet carries no competitor ratings. That's a fleet-data gap, not a cert caveat.
Best scenario for Lupo: W-BH reaching race at 12–20 kts, TWA 90–120°. Any time at 110–120° TWA in 14+ kts is time Lupo is sailing near its fastest point of sail.
Sources
- Primary polar (routing source-of-truth) — 2026 ORR Offshore Racing Rule Certificate (Full Measured), USA 12985, Cert #US43225, measured 21-Apr-2026.
- Polar file —
lupo_polar_raw.pol, built from the ORR cert byscripts/build_polar_from_orr.py(no hand-transcribed values). - Cross-check (not averaged) — ORC VPP polar,
data/2026-05-24 Sail and Polar Info for Brandon/ORC/Italia 12.98 ORC Polars USA 12985.txt. - Degradation framing —
polar_degradation_scenarios.md.
PRE-RACE RESEARCH — not race-period routing advice. Updated 2026-05-29.