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Weather and Current Source Catalog

Rev: v2.1  ·  Updated: 2026-06-01

Every data source used in this project, plus the public ones wired into the automated pipeline. Verify all access is working before race week.

TL;DR

Three classes of data — never confuse them:

Class What it is Sources here Horizon
FORECAST Model prediction of the future Open-Meteo (GFS/ECMWF/ICON), HRRR, NAM, ECMWF ENS, RTOFS forecast Useful to ~7 days; no model reaches race day until ~T-10/T-14
REANALYSIS Best-estimate actuals (past / near-real-time), not a forecast ERA5 Past → ~5-day lag
OBSERVED Direct measurement of the present ocean/atmosphere CoastWatch/NESDIS SST, AVISO+ altimetry, ASCAT, RTOFS nowcast (assimilated) Now, minus latency
  • The forecast monitor (scripts/forecast_monitor/) pulls Open-Meteo GFS+ECMWF+ICON wind/gust/MSLP/CAPE + Marine SST/current/waves — public, no key — and correctly declines to classify race day while it is >7 days out. See forecast_analog_matcher.md.
  • The Gulf Stream monitor (scripts/gulfstream_monitor/) fetches the OBSERVED ocean (SST + altimetry); ERA5 (REANALYSIS) backs scripts/analysis/weather_overlay.py.
  • The Stream is the only genuinely predictive signal before the models converge — and for it, SST + altimetry beat RTOFS alone (see Gulf Stream Framework → RTOFS).

One click to every model, tool and data portal this project is built on. Details, horizons and caveats are in the tables below.

Forecast models Open-Meteo (pipeline default — GFS·ECMWF·ICON + Marine) · NOAA NOMADS (GFS · NAM · HRRR · RTOFS GRIB) · ECMWF · DWD Open Data (ICON) · HRRR

Routing / GRIB tools LuckGrib · PredictWind · Adrena · Expedition

Ocean — currents & SSH RTOFS (NCEP Global) · HYCOM · Copernicus Marine (CMEMS) · AVISO+ altimetry · OSCAR (PO.DAAC) · NOAA OPC ocean products

SST & observed NOAA CoastWatch · NESDIS STAR · Rutgers RUCOOL · NASA SPoRT · ASCAT (KNMI)

Reanalysis ERA5 — Copernicus CDS · Open-Meteo Archive (ERA5)

Marine forecasts & expert read NOAA NWS Marine · NOAA Ocean Prediction Center · Frank Bohlen's Gulf Stream notes (bermudarace.com)


FORECAST — Atmospheric Models (GRIB)

Open-Meteo (pipeline default — GFS + ECMWF + ICON)

Field Detail
Provider Open-Meteo (re-serves NOAA GFS, ECMWF IFS, DWD ICON + Marine)
Resolution Native per model (GFS 0.25°, ECMWF 0.25°, ICON 13 km)
Forecast length ~7 days usable horizon for this corridor
Access Public HTTP/JSON, no key; scripts/forecast_monitor/fetcher.py (stdlib urllib)
Race use Pre-race monitoring pipeline (scripts/daily_brief.py); not a race-period routing source
Key products Wind, gust, MSLP, CAPE (atmospheric) + Marine SST, surface current, waves
Horizon caveat Pipeline classifies periods P1/P2/P3 with model-agreement confidence and declines to classify race day (2026-06-19) while it is >7 days out — do not fabricate a race-day code

GFS (Global Forecast System)

Field Detail
Provider NOAA/NCEP
Resolution 0.25° (~25 km) globally
Forecast length 384h
Cycle frequency 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z
Availability ~4h after cycle
Access NOAA NOMADS, LuckGrib, PredictWind, Adrena, Expedition
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Strengths / weaknesses Free, universal; sometimes overdevelops ridge; underperforms ECMWF at 5–7 days
Key products UGRD/VGRD (wind), PRMSL (pressure), APCP (precip), CAPE (convection)

ECMWF

Field Detail
Provider ECMWF via commercial services
Resolution 0.25° (IFS), 9 km HRES
Forecast length 240h (HRES), 360h (ENS)
Cycle frequency 00z, 12z
Availability ~6–8h after cycle
Access PredictWind, LuckGrib, Adrena, Copernicus CDS
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Strengths / weaknesses Generally superior to GFS at 5–10 days; requires subscription

HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh)

Field Detail
Provider NOAA/ESRL
Resolution 3 km
Forecast length 18h (standard), 48h (18z cycle)
Cycle frequency Hourly
Access NOAA NOMADS, LuckGrib
Race use Pre-race and start day coastal planning only
Note Best short-range convective detail; not useful south of ~35°N

NAM (North American Mesoscale)

Field Detail
Provider NOAA/NCEP
Resolution 12 km
Forecast length 84h
Cycle frequency 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z
Access NOAA NOMADS, LuckGrib
Race use Pre-race coastal leg

ICON (DWD)

Field Detail
Provider German Met Service (DWD)
Resolution 13 km global
Forecast length 180h
Cycle frequency 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z
Access LuckGrib, Adrena, DWD Open Data
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed); useful independent model check

ECMWF ENS (Ensemble)

Field Detail
Provider ECMWF
Resolution 0.4° (51 members)
Forecast length 360h
Access PredictWind, LuckGrib
Race use Analog comparison, confidence intervals, scenario planning; essential T-7 onwards

OBSERVED + FORECAST — Ocean Current and Gulf Stream Products

RTOFS/HYCOM/CMEMS are forecast/nowcast models; AVISO+ and OSCAR are observed (altimetry). Validate models against observation.

RTOFS

Field Detail
Provider NOAA/NCEP
Resolution 1/12° (~8 km)
Forecast length 8 days
Cycle frequency Daily (00z)
Availability ~12h after cycle
Access NOAA NOMADS, LuckGrib (via HYCOM), Expedition plugin
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Critical North wall position can be off 10–30 nm; always cross-check against SST. Do not route solely on RTOFS — see Gulf Stream Framework → RTOFS.

HYCOM

Field Detail
Provider COAPS/NRL
Resolution 1/12°
Access hycom.org, LuckGrib
Note Often similar to RTOFS; useful cross-check

CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Service)

Field Detail
Provider EU Copernicus
Resolution 1/12° (global physics)
Access marine.copernicus.eu (free registration)
Products Current, SSH anomaly, SST, mixed layer depth
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)

AVISO+ Altimetry (SSH Anomaly / ADT)

Field Detail
Provider CNES/AVISO+
Resolution 0.25° (merged altimetry)
Update frequency Daily (2–3 day delay for best product)
Access aviso.altimetry.fr, CMEMS
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Key products ADT (Absolute Dynamic Topography), SLA (Sea Level Anomaly)
Use SSH highs = warm core eddies/Stream meanders; SSH lows = cold core rings

OSCAR

Field Detail
Provider JPL/PO.DAAC
Resolution 0.25°
Latency 5 days
Access podaac.jpl.nasa.gov
Race use Pre-race context only; too delayed for tactical use

REANALYSIS — Actuals (not forecast)

ERA5

Field Detail
Provider ECMWF / Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS)
Resolution 0.25° hourly
Type Reanalysis — best-estimate past/near-real-time actuals, ~5-day lag; NOT a forecast
Access cdsapi (~/.cdsapirc credential); used by scripts/analysis/weather_overlay.py (with AVISO)
Race use Post-hoc verification, analog-year reconstruction, overlay basis — never as a forward forecast

OBSERVED — SST and Thermal Imagery

NOAA CoastWatch SST

Field Detail
Provider NOAA CoastWatch
Resolution 1 km (GOES-R), 2 km (VIIRS)
Coverage Daily (cloud-dependent)
Access coastwatch.noaa.gov
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Key use North wall position, eddy identification, SST gradient sharpness

NOAA NESDIS SST Composites

Field Detail
Provider NOAA NESDIS/STAR
Resolution 2 km (daily and 7-day composite)
Access star.nesdis.noaa.gov
Race use YES (2026 NOR confirmed)
Key use 7-day composite fills cloud gaps; good for eddy position confirmation

PredictWind SST

Field Detail
Access predictwind.com or iOS/Android app
Note Subscription service — verify personalized data during race is permitted

OBSERVED — Wind Validation

ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer)

Field Detail
Provider KNMI/EUMETSAT
Resolution 12.5 km, 25 km
Coverage Polar orbiting, ~12h global
Access knmi.nl/research/ASCAT, PODAAC
Race use Pre-race model validation; validate GFS/ECMWF wind field against actual surface

Public Forecast Services

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC)

Product Access Race use
Surface analysis charts ocean.weather.gov Category A — YES
24h/48h/96h/120h surface prognosis ocean.weather.gov Category A — YES
High Seas forecast (text) ocean.weather.gov Category A — YES
Significant wave height charts ocean.weather.gov Category A — YES

NOAA NWS Marine Forecasts

Product Access Race use
Offshore marine zone forecasts weather.gov Category A — YES
VHF weather radio (WX) Onboard VHF Category A — YES
Tropical weather outlook nhc.noaa.gov Category A — YES

Commercial Services - Routing

Personalized routing advice during the race is Category D (prohibited). Pre-race use unrestricted.

Service Notes
PredictWind Routing, GRIB, SST, offshore weather
FastSeas Offshore routing
LuckGrib GRIB downloader (Mac/iOS); excellent multi-model access
Weather4D GRIB viewer, iOS/Android
Passage Weather Visualization only
Windy.com Visualization only — do not use as routing source

Access Verification Checklist (Complete Before Race Week)

  • [ ] LuckGrib subscription active; ECMWF, GFS, ICON accessible
  • [ ] PredictWind subscription active; GRIB download tested
  • [ ] Adrena or Expedition GRIB plugin configured; test download successful
  • [ ] NOAA CoastWatch SST access confirmed; latest product available
  • [ ] RTOFS current overlay working in routing software
  • [ ] AVISO or CMEMS ADT access confirmed
  • [ ] OPC charts bookmarked and accessible
  • [ ] NWS offshore forecast zones for race corridor bookmarked
  • [ ] Offshore hardware (Iridium, SSB) configured; GRIB download tested
  • [ ] Open-Meteo pipeline reachable (scripts/forecast_monitor/fetcher.py — no key)
  • [ ] ERA5 CDS credential present (~/.cdsapirc); AVISO Copernicus Marine credential present

Sources

  • Pipeline code (FORECAST)scripts/forecast_monitor/fetcher.py, scripts/forecast_monitor/classify.py, scripts/daily_brief.py (Open-Meteo GFS+ECMWF+ICON, public, no key).
  • Gulf Stream monitor (OBSERVED)scripts/gulfstream_monitor/fetcher.py (SST + altimetry sources).
  • Reanalysis / overlayscripts/analysis/weather_overlay.py (ERA5 via cdsapi + AVISO).
  • RTOFS limitations & SST-first rulegulf_stream_framework.md.
  • Pipeline / matcher overviewforecast_analog_matcher.md.
  • External providers — NOAA NOMADS/NCEP, ECMWF, DWD, Copernicus (CDS + Marine), AVISO+, JPL PO.DAAC, NOAA CoastWatch/NESDIS, KNMI/EUMETSAT, NOAA OPC/NWS; commercial: PredictWind, LuckGrib, Adrena, Expedition, FastSeas, Weather4D.

PRE-RACE RESEARCH — not race-period routing advice. Updated 2026-05-29.