Daily Routing Brief — 2026-05-28
Generated 2026-05-29T02:14:38.957512+00:00 · Newport→Bermuda 2026 · T−22 days · « all briefs
Regime: PRACTICE + OCEAN-TRACKING — T−22 days. No atmospheric model reaches race day yet (~7-day horizon). The codes below are crew practice, not a June-19 forecast. The genuinely predictive signal this far out is the Gulf Stream — track its evolution below.
PRE-RACE PRACTICE ONLY — not for use during the race
These are pre-race research / practice reps. Per RRS 41 (2026 NOR) a boat shall not receive routing assistance from shore — including AI-generated — while racing. This page stops updating before the June 19 start; do not open it from the boat once racing.
Headline
Current forecast window most resembles 2022 (W-PF/W-CC/W-BH, score 3.40).
- Winner that year: Illusion (Cal40, Stan Honey nav) — ~51h corrected
- What won: Post-frontal NW heavy-air reaching; 7-hour eddy hold for current exploitation
- Winning tactics: T-PF T-ME T-CL
- Lesson: EAST paid 15h vs WEST when an eddy/meander limb is confirmed. CCR western limb is the trap.
- Best corridor that year: EAST
Per-period classification (current window)
Start anchor: 2026-05-29T00:00:00+00:00 · horizon +167 h
| period | code | conf | GFS wind/gust | ECMWF wind/gust | ICON wind/gust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 start / coastal | W-PF | LOW (33%) | 8.2/22.2 kn | 9.6/21.2 kn | 7.2/17.5 kn |
| P2 Gulf Stream crossing | W-CF /W-SQ (1/3) | HIGH (100%) | 24.8/45.9 kn | 25.2/40.4 kn | 24.9/46.7 kn |
| P3 Bermuda approach | W-PF | MEDIUM (67%) | 14.5/22.0 kn | 12.6/23.9 kn | 14.2/25.3 kn |
Codes are atmospheric only and link to the analog framework. Wind/gust in knots. Confidence = model agreement. See the method.
Trend (day over day)
First brief on record — no prior day to compare. Trends populate from tomorrow.
Convergence: race day not yet in model horizon — convergence tracking begins automatically once it is (~T−7).
Analog ranking (period-aware)
| rank | year | score | P1/P2/P3 | best corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2022 | 3.40 | W-PF/W-CC/W-BH | EAST |
| 2 | 2024 | 2.55 | W-PF/W-RC/W-BH | RHUMB |
| 3 | 2016 | 2.55 | W-PF/W-CC/W-PL | RHUMB |
| 4 | 2012 | 2.55 | W-PF/W-BH/W-BH | RHUMB |
2014 excluded as seed data. Years link to their winner-route writeups.
Gulf Stream (observed — the real signal this far out)
Latest local snapshot: 2026-05-31 (1 days old)
Clearest satellite SST pass for 2026-05-31 (Rutgers RUCOOL). Full imagery set + Frank Bohlen's note: data/gulfstream-monitor/2026-05-31/.
A cold-core ring or meander near the rhumb persists for weeks, so today's Stream state genuinely informs June 19 — see the corridor decision page. Stream codes (W-RC/W-CC/W-WE/W-AC) come from this observed data, not the atmospheric forecast.
Crossing corridor geometry — no analyzed Stream snapshot on/before 2026-05-28 yet; the walls + eddy fill in once a snapshot is analyzed.
Full interactive planning map — all six past corrected-time winners' tracks over the corridor (toggle layers).
Data sources
- Forecast (wind · gust · pressure — GFS·ECMWF·ICON): Open-Meteo · full list in the Sources & Tools catalog.
- Gulf Stream SST: NOAA OPC NCOM · Rutgers RUCOOL · NASA SPoRT.
- Gulf Stream currents: NOAA OPC RTOFS · AOML altimetry.
- Expert read: Frank Bohlen's Gulf Stream notes.
Sea state & ocean (numeric — Open-Meteo Marine)
Near-term (next 24 h) means along the corridor. SST and waves are reliable; ocean current is a COARSE model that understates the Gulf Stream (2–4 kn) and cannot see rings or meanders — trust the Stream imagery for structure.
| waypoint | SST | current | wave |
|---|---|---|---|
| start | 13.8 °C / 57 °F | 0.3 kn @ 165° | 0.9 m / 7 s |
| shelf | 16.0 °C / 61 °F | 0.2 kn @ 167° | 1.2 m / 7 s |
| stream | 22.1 °C / 72 °F | 0.6 kn @ 309° | 1.7 m / 6 s |
| post_stream | 22.0 °C / 72 °F | 0.6 kn @ 225° | 2.0 m / 7 s |
| approach | 23.0 °C / 73 °F | 0.7 kn @ 161° | 2.4 m / 7 s |
North wall: SST jumps +6.1 °C from the shelf (16.0 °C) to the crossing (22.1 °C) — a clear Gulf Stream front signature.
Sea state: peak corridor wave ~2.4 m.
Wind-against-current — expect steep, short seas: stream (14.4 kn wind vs 0.6 kn current, 23° apart). Opposed flow stacks the wave train; ease into it and protect the crew/boat. (Coarse model current — confirm against Stream imagery; the real Gulf Stream is stronger, so true wind-against-Stream seas can be worse than this flags.)
Race-day horizon
Race day is T−22 — beyond the ~7-day model horizon. The classifier correctly declines (no fabricated race-day codes). Convergence tracking begins automatically when race day enters the window (~T−7).
Sources: forecast — Open-Meteo (GFS/ECMWF/ICON, no key). Analogs — framework + winner routes + tactics. Gulf Stream — scripts/gulfstream_monitor. Method — forecast analog matcher. Pipeline — scripts/daily_brief.py.