Past-Month Hindcast (ERA5) — Newport→Bermuda 2026

Reconstructed from ERA5 reanalysis — not a live forecast rep

This page is built after the fact from ERA5 reanalysis: it shows what the weather actually did along the corridor on this date, not a forecast or analog that was issued at the time. The live daily practice reps (with analog matching and convergence tracking) begin 2026-05-28 — see the Daily Analysis overview. Past-month setup context only; pre-race research, frozen into the build (RRS 41).

What the corridor weather actually did across the 27 days 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-27, from ERA5 reanalysis — the honest past-month companion to the live daily reps and the weather animation + trend chart.

Trend across the month

What the corridor actually did, day over day across the 27 ERA5 days (2026-05-01 → 2026-05-27, newest at right):

metric	trend	first → latest	range
Crossing wind max (kn)	▅▆█▅▂▂▇█▅▇▁▆▃▄▃▄▃▃▃▄▃▂█▆▃▆▂	23 → 16 ↓	12–32
Gust max (kn)	▅▅▇▅▂▂▆█▄▆▁▆▃▄▃▄▃▃▂▄▃▂█▅▃▅▃	33 → 25 ↓	15–49
Sea-level pressure (hPa)	▂▄▁▅▆▆▃▂▅▄▄▄▆▂▂▆▆▇█▆▆▆▇█▇▆▄	1009 → 1016 ↑	1006–1028
Wave height (m)	▃▃▇▇▂▁██▂▆▃▅▃▅▄▄▃▃▁▂▂▃▆▆▄▅▄	2.0 → 2.2 ↑	1.2–3.5

Each bar is one ERA5 day at the 37°N crossing; rows min–max scaled independently.

The month in one read

• Windiest: 32 kn at the crossing on 2026-05-03; calmest 12 kn on 2026-05-11.
• Biggest sea: 3.5 m on 2026-05-08.
• Active / frontal days (≥25 kn or ≤1010 hPa at the crossing): 12 of 27.
• Dominant wind direction: S×5, SW×4, WSW×4.

Setup context, not a forecast — the synoptic rhythm the corridor has been in as the race approaches, the atmospheric companion to the Gulf Stream evolution. Pre-race research only (RRS 41).

Watch the month evolve

The trend table as moving maps — one frame per ERA5 day across the window. Watch the highs and lows track over the corridor (atmosphere) and the Gulf Stream meander and eddies migrate (ocean).

Wind + sea-level pressure (ERA5)

One frame per day, May 1 → 27. Filled contours are MSLP (warm = high, cool = low); arrows are 10 m wind coloured by speed; dashed line is the rhumb. Frozen, committed (RRS 41).

Gulf Stream current field (AOML altimetry)

One frame per day, May 1 → 27 (AOML CoastWatch altimetry — cloud-immune, with its own coastline, current vectors and eddy markers). White = Newport→Bermuda rhumb; green = current-optimal crossing (Zermelo least-time through the GLORYS current field — current only, not a wind route). The ocean companion to the wind loop; see the Gulf Stream pages for the crossing decision. Frozen, committed (RRS 41).

Gulf Stream — three interactive snapshots (GLORYS)

The same animated "Expedition look" defined-current field as the planning map — drag, zoom and hover for speed — at the start, middle and end of May, so you can compare how the Stream's meander and eddies shifted across the month. Copernicus GLORYS reanalysis; current only, frozen (RRS 41).

2026-05-01

2026-05-14

2026-05-27

Every day

Each day links to its full corridor profile. All values at the 37°N Gulf Stream crossing.

date	crossing wind	gust	dir	MSLP	wave
2026-05-27	16 kn	25 kn	W	1016 hPa	2.2 m
2026-05-26	27 kn	35 kn	WSW	1020 hPa	2.5 m
2026-05-25	19 kn	24 kn	S	1026 hPa	2.1 m
2026-05-24	26 kn	34 kn	ESE	1028 hPa	2.8 m
2026-05-23	31 kn	48 kn	E	1025 hPa	3.0 m
2026-05-22	16 kn	20 kn	WSW	1023 hPa	1.7 m
2026-05-21	18 kn	25 kn	WSW	1022 hPa	1.6 m
2026-05-20	21 kn	28 kn	SW	1022 hPa	1.6 m
2026-05-19	17 kn	22 kn	SW	1026 hPa	1.2 m
2026-05-18	17 kn	24 kn	WSW	1025 hPa	1.8 m
2026-05-17	19 kn	25 kn	SW	1023 hPa	1.8 m
2026-05-16	20 kn	28 kn	WNW	1020 hPa	2.3 m
2026-05-15	17 kn	26 kn	W	1010 hPa	2.3 m
2026-05-14	22 kn	30 kn	S	1008 hPa	2.6 m
2026-05-13	18 kn	25 kn	SSW	1023 hPa	1.8 m
2026-05-12	27 kn	40 kn	NNW	1017 hPa	2.5 m
2026-05-11	12 kn	15 kn	SW	1016 hPa	1.8 m
2026-05-10	29 kn	40 kn	S	1016 hPa	3.0 m
2026-05-09	22 kn	29 kn	S	1019 hPa	1.7 m
2026-05-08	31 kn	49 kn	NW	1009 hPa	3.5 m
2026-05-07	28 kn	38 kn	SSW	1014 hPa	3.4 m
2026-05-06	15 kn	20 kn	S	1021 hPa	1.2 m
2026-05-05	15 kn	21 kn	SSW	1022 hPa	1.4 m
2026-05-04	24 kn	32 kn	WNW	1019 hPa	3.2 m
2026-05-03	32 kn	44 kn	W	1006 hPa	3.3 m
2026-05-02	27 kn	35 kn	SE	1015 hPa	1.8 m
2026-05-01	23 kn	33 kn	NW	1009 hPa	2.0 m

ERA5 via the Open-Meteo Archive API.