If-Then Playbook — pre-race decision sheet
Rev: v1.0 · pre-race research only (RRS 41 — not for use while racing).
The single most useful thing you can do before the gun, per the 2026 Bermuda Race weather webinar (Chelsea Freeze): decide the decisions in advance. Build an if-this-then-that sheet now, while you have time and a clear head, so on the water you're recognising a pre-planned scenario instead of solving it cold at 0300 in a building breeze.
How to use this. Each row is a trigger you can actually observe (a Stream feature on the decision page, a wind regime in the brief, a sea state) → the default action → why, linked to the evidence. These are defaults, not autopilot — but the bar to deviate from a pre-made plan is high.
Two meta-rules from the experts, before any specific call:
- Stick to the plan (Freeze). "Very rarely does it pay to completely change your plan mid-race. Don't throw out the forecast with the bathwater." If reality drifts a little from the forecast, hold course and watch — don't re-plan on one surprising model run.
- Don't chase the east (Bohlen). On a 5–7 kn boat, "nine times out of ten I've got to beat my way back to Bermuda" against a SW'ly. Every mile committed east of rhumb is a mile you may have to claw back upwind — and 5–10 nm is minutes between 1st and 3rd. East is a commitment that must pay for its detour.
Current read — 2026 (verify against the live snapshot before relying on it)
As of the latest Gulf Stream snapshot: a persistent counter-clockwise cold-core ring at ~35°30′N, 68°45′W (just west of the rhumb), nearly stationary for months and expected to still matter after the 19 June start, with a meander crest crossing the rhumb near 38°N — together driving a large band of adverse north-and-west current extending >200 nm along the rhumb (~2 kn locally) per Frank Bohlen's GS Note #2 (4 Jun) — and meander patterns changing unusually fast week-to-week. Weather has been in a relatively active pattern (more lows/fronts than typical). Today's closest analog leans 2012 (reaching, benign-Stream, RHUMB, low-maneuver execution race) — a practice lean this far out, not a forecast.
This section is the part that changes. Re-check the snapshot date and re-confirm the ring's position/strength on the latest altimetry before treating any row below as live.
A. Gulf Stream crossing — the highest-leverage call
| If you see… | Then (default) | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Stream, no ring near rhumb | Hold RHUMB, cross perpendicular at the narrowest, fastest point | RHUMB was median-best or tied in 4 of 6 years; chasing nothing beats chasing features (corridor decision) |
| Cold-core ring ON/just-west of rhumb (the 2026 read) | Accept a modest adverse set on rhumb; only jog east if the ring is confirmed and the wind lets you fetch the weak (east) side without a beat-back | Getting to the weak side is a 60–80 nm jump; on a 5–7 kn boat the beat-back usually costs more than the set (Bohlen). This is the 2016 CCR trap shape — don't get sucked west of it either |
| Confirmed warm eddy / favourable meander limb EAST of rhumb | Go EAST to ride it — the one time east pays | 2022 is the textbook case (EAST fastest in the set, n=29). Needs confirmation on altimetry + SST, not a hunch |
| Any "favourable current" signal that's RTOFS-only | Distrust it — wait for altimetry/Copernicus agreement | 2016 was lost trusting an RTOFS west-side current that never materialised; Bohlen is "suspect" of RTOFS, trusts altimetry → Copernicus/GLORYS → RTOFS |
| West-side foul current / ring | Stay out of the west corridor — treat −68.5°W (~30 nm west of rhumb) as the hard edge; only push there for a confirmed pressure play, never for current | WEST is almost always a cost (~5–15 h) and the highest retirement rate (10–25%); the 2016 cohort that dove 30–50 nm west on RTOFS-only lost ~5 h and retired at 18% (corridor decision) |
| Stream picture is cloud-obscured (SST gaps) | Read the altimetry loop (cloud-immune), not the SST image | Altimetry sees through cloud; Bohlen's go-to all-weather model |
B. Wind / weather regime (set the mode, then execute)
| If the regime is… | Then | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Front at/near the start (W-CF / W-PF) | Pre-set the reef/headsail plan; time the crossing to avoid the worst wind-against-current sea state; protect the boat | Frontal passage + Stream = the steepest seas of the race (see C) |
| Light air / Bermuda-high parking (W-LA) | Minimise maneuvers, sail for pressure, hold rhumb | 2014/2018 light-air years: wind is the binding constraint, corridor choice matters less, low-maneuver boats win |
| Stable high / reaching (W-BH) | Execution race — low maneuver count, sail fast and clean near rhumb | 2012/2024: simple execution near rhumb beat positioning |
| Models disagree on a storm/front (ping-pong) | Don't commit to the scary run — weight the consistent signal; check which model is verifying | Freeze: more models ≠ easier; the edge is knowing which one is right, not averaging all five |
C. Sea state — wind-against-current
| If… | Then | Why |
|---|---|---|
| The brief flags wind-against-current at the crossing (steep-sea callout in Sea state) | Ease into it — soak/foot for a softer angle, protect crew and rig; don't drive hard into the stack | Wind opposing the Stream builds short, steep seas that punish boat and crew (Bohlen). The model understates the Stream, so real seas can be worse than flagged |
| Wind is with the current | Expect smoother/longer seas — you can push harder there | Aligned flow lengthens the wave train |
D. Process discipline (how to run the nav desk)
| Situation | Default |
|---|---|
| Stable high-pressure, high-confidence forecast | Don't download every run; conserve attention (Bohlen: avoid sensory overload — know 1–2 sources well) |
| Approaching a front / critical decision point | Pull the latest model every cycle (HRRR ~hourly, GFS ~6 h, Euro ~12 h); look outside, watch the cloud |
| AI medium-range models (GraphCast/AIFS) agree with GFS/ECMWF | Lean into that large-scale regime for the 4–10 day pattern (third opinion only — not short-term/routing) |
| Reality diverges slightly from plan | Hold the plan, watch, confirm before re-routing — don't throw out the forecast with the bathwater |
Sources
Synthesised from this site's own analysis — the Stream Corridor Decision, Routing Tactic Catalog, Weather Analog Framework, and Winner Route Summary — cross-checked against the 2026 Bermuda Race "Gulf Stream, Weather & Navigation" webinar (Frank Bohlen + Chelsea Freeze). Pre-race research only; this sheet stops being valid the moment you start racing (RRS 41).