Daily Analysis — Newport→Bermuda 2026
What the daily practice reps are telling us as a series — the trend across 31 briefs (2026-05-28 → 2026-07-10) and how the race is shaping up against previous race-year weather patterns. Each brief is a practice rep of the live pipeline; this page reads them together. Newest: 2026-07-10.
PRE-RACE PRACTICE ONLY — not for use during the race
These are pre-race research / practice reps. Per RRS 41 (2026 NOR) a boat shall not receive routing assistance from shore — including AI-generated — while racing. This page stops updating before the June 19 start; do not open it from the boat once racing.
Live data frozen for the race (RRS 41)
Gulf Stream + weather visuals were frozen at the June 19 start. Last full refresh 2026-07-10.
Where things stand — T−-21
- Regime: practice + ocean-tracking. Race day is still beyond the ~7-day model horizon, so today's atmospheric analog is a practice rep, not a forecast. The genuinely predictive signal this far out is the Gulf Stream. A real race-day call unlocks at ~T−7, when convergence tracking begins automatically.
- 31 briefs on record, 2026-05-28 → 2026-07-10.
- Today's closest analog: 2012 (score 2.55) — W-PF/W-BH/W-BH.
The honest read: The closest analog has held on 2012 for 2 days — early stabilization, but still pre-horizon, so treat it as a practice lean, not a call.
What the series is telling us
Trend at a glance
Day-over-day across the series (2026-05-28 → 2026-07-10, newest at right):
| metric | trend | first → latest |
|---|---|---|
| Model agreement % | ▁▃▆▆▆▆▃▃▆▃▆▃▆▃▆██▆▆▆▃▁▁▃▆█▆▆▆█▆ |
67% → 89% ↑ |
| Crossing SST °C | ▂▂▂▂▂▂▂▅▄▅▄▄▂▁▅▅▅▅▅▅▆▆▇▅▅▅▅▆▇█▇ |
22.1 → 28.8 ↑ (72 → 84 °F) |
| Peak wave m | ▄▄▃█▅▃▃▃▂▁▂▃▃▂▃▃▃▃▃▄▃▃▆▅▂▂▁▁▃▃▂ |
2.4 → 1.7 ↓ (8 → 6 ft) |
| Analog score | ▂▁▄▁▄▁▄▁▄▁▄▄▁▄█▄▂▄▄▅▄▂▄▂▄▄▄▄▁▄▁ |
3.40 → 2.55 ↓ |
| North-wall jump °C | █████▇▅▇▆▆▅▄▂▁▆▆▆▆▅▅▅▆▇▆▆▅▅▅▆▇▆ |
+6.1 → +3.9 ↓ (+11 → +7 °F) |
Each bar is one brief day; rows are min–max scaled independently.
Weather — the last 10 days
Each frame = one ERA5 day (holds on the most recent). Filled contours are MSLP (warm = high, cool = low); arrows are 10 m wind coloured by speed; dashed line is the rhumb. Frozen, committed — pre-race research only (RRS 41).
Wind run-up at the 37°N crossing (left axis, knots) with corridor-mean band, against sea-level pressure (right axis). Spikes are frontal/low passages; flat high-pressure spells are the calmer regimes.
Closest-analog signal
- By day: 2022 → 2018 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2024 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2024 → 2018 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2022 → 2012 → 2012 → 2022 → 2012 → 2022 → 2012 → 2022 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2012 → 2024 → 2012 → 2012
- Days led (tally): 2012×21, 2022×5, 2024×3, 2018×2 (a clear front-runner only emerges as the horizon closes)
Model agreement
- Cross-model agreement 67% → 89% ↑ across the series. Rising agreement near the horizon is the confidence signal; this far out it mostly tracks short-range weather, not the race.
Gulf Stream — the real signal this far out
- Latest snapshot: 2026-07-10 (0 days old). A ring or meander near the rhumb persists for weeks, so today's Stream state genuinely informs June 19 — see the corridor decision page.
- Crossing SST 22.1 → 28.8 °C (72 → 84 °F) ↑; north-wall jump now +3.9 °C / +7 °F (clear front).
Frozen snapshot — clearest Rutgers RUCOOL SST pass, 2026-06-19; the live sources are linked under Data sources below.
Daily AOML altimetry (cloud-immune) — watch the Stream's meander and eddies migrate. White = Newport→Bermuda rhumb; green = current-optimal crossing (Zermelo least-time through the GLORYS field — current only, not a wind route). Frozen, committed (RRS 41).
Sea state
- Peak corridor wave 2.4 → 1.7 m (8 → 6 ft) ↓.
Data sources
- Forecast (wind · gust · pressure — GFS·ECMWF·ICON): Open-Meteo · full list in the Sources & Tools catalog.
- Gulf Stream SST: NOAA OPC NCOM · Rutgers RUCOOL · NASA SPoRT.
- Gulf Stream currents: NOAA OPC RTOFS · AOML altimetry.
- Expert read: Frank Bohlen's Gulf Stream notes.
How the race is shaping up
If the pattern currently leading holds — and this far out it may not — the closest race-year analog is 2012:
- That year: Carina (Reichel/Pugh design) — line honors basis
- What won: Simple execution near rhumb; ~2 jibes + 2 tacks for 636 nm
- Best corridor: RHUMB
- Lesson: Benign Stream year. Execution beats positioning. Low maneuver count wins reaching races.
A practice lean drawn from a still-bouncing signal, not a race-day forecast. The page commits to a real call only once race day is inside the model horizon (~T−7) and the analog stabilizes.
Convergence tracker
- Not yet converging. Race day is T−-21, beyond the ~7-day model horizon. Convergence tracking (consecutive stable race-day analog) begins automatically at ~T−7.
Full brief log
Every brief, newest first.
| date | T−N | regime | headline analog | P1/P2/P3 | Stream | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | T−-21 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-07-10 | new Stream |
| 2026-07-09 | T−-20 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-07-09 | analog 2024→2012 |
| 2026-07-08 | T−-19 | practice | 2024 | W-BH/W-PF/W-BH | 2026-07-08 | analog 2012→2024 |
| 2026-07-07 | T−-18 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-07-07 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-27 | T−-8 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-27 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-26 | T−-7 | practice | 2012 | W-LA/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-26 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-25 | T−-6 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-25 | analog 2022→2012 |
| 2026-06-24 | T−-5 | practice | 2022 | W-BH/W-LA/W-BH | 2026-06-24 | analog 2012→2022 |
| 2026-06-19 | T−0 | conv | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-06-19 | analog 2022→2012 |
| 2026-06-18 | T−1 | conv | 2022 | W-PF/W-CF/W-CF | 2026-06-18 | analog 2012→2022 |
| 2026-06-17 | T−2 | conv | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-06-17 | analog 2022→2012 |
| 2026-06-16 | T−3 | conv | 2022 | W-PF/W-PF/W-BH | 2026-06-16 | analog 2012→2022 |
| 2026-06-15 | T−4 | conv | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-06-15 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-14 | T−5 | conv | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-14 | analog 2022→2012 |
| 2026-06-13 | T−6 | conv | 2022 | W-BH/W-PF/W-BH | None | analog 2012→2022 |
| 2026-06-12 | T−7 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | None | steady |
| 2026-06-11 | T−8 | practice | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-BH | None | new Stream |
| 2026-06-10 | T−9 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-10 | analog 2018→2012 |
| 2026-06-09 | T−10 | practice | 2018 | W-BH/W-BH/W-PL | None | analog 2024→2018 |
| 2026-06-08 | T−11 | practice | 2024 | W-PF/W-LA/W-BH | 2026-06-08 | analog 2012→2024 |
| 2026-06-07 | T−12 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-07 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-06 | T−13 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-06-06 | new Stream |
| 2026-06-05 | T−14 | practice | 2012 | W-LA/W-BH/W-BH | 2026-06-05 | analog 2024→2012 |
| 2026-06-04 | T−15 | practice | 2024 | W-PF/W-LA/W-PF | None | analog 2012→2024 |
| 2026-06-03 | T−16 | practice | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-PF | None | steady |
| 2026-06-02 | T−17 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-CF | None | steady |
| 2026-06-01 | T−18 | practice | 2012 | W-BH/W-BH/W-BH | None | new Stream |
| 2026-05-31 | T−19 | practice | 2012 | W-CF/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-05-31 | steady |
| 2026-05-30 | T−20 | practice | 2012 | W-PF/W-BH/W-PF | 2026-05-31 | analog 2018→2012 |
| 2026-05-29 | T−21 | practice | 2018 | W-LA/W-CF/W-PF | 2026-05-31 | analog 2022→2018 |
| 2026-05-28 | T−22 | practice | 2022 | W-PF/W-CF/W-PF | 2026-05-31 |